Thanks Svetlana, Silva and others for this interesting conversation. We all seems to agree that the use of ToC in programme conceptualisation and also in programme evaluation is gaining currency. Since it’s a fairly recent phenomenon, in the last decade or so, when a large number of programmes and organisations have started incorporating ToC in their way of working, it might be too early to say what difference it has made to these programmes /organisations (I have not come across a study on the impact of the use of ToC!). To my mind, based on my experience of working with several programmes and organisations, three cohorts may exist on how ToC are being used:

1. ToC have become deeply ingrained: This cohort used ToC in all aspects of programme planning, implementing and tracking. You may agree that this won’t be dominant cohort, say about 10% programmes and organisations.  
2. ToC is used sparingly /occasionally but still somewhat usefully - This is likely to be a dominant cohort (say 50%) i.e. a large proportion of programmes and organisations are using ToC sparingly but still somewhat effectively. What it means that programme design include conceptualisation of a ToC. Further annual review and programme evaluations are based on the ToC. ToC is constantly improvised as well, whenever a review or evaluation take place in this cohort. However, in this cohort, motivation of use of ToC is externally driven and programme monitoring systems are not based on a ToC, which also limit the rigour with which reviews and evaluations can be done.  
3. ToC is used perfunctorily: In this cohort, ToC may or may not exist. A ToC may be designed as some donor demanded it but not used thereafter. If there is not demand, a ToC may not exist. However, ToC may be developed when an evaluation is commissioned, generally by an evaluator. Programme or organisation still do not know about or see value in the ToC and consequently do not ‘own’ it.    

The situation will obviously change in the future as more and more agencies and programmes start gaining from use of a ToC. First and second cohort may increase therefore. However to speed up the change, I guess, two strategies might be useful:

1. Strengthen capacities for conceptualisation of programme theories of change: Demonstrating utility of ToC is incumbent upon how well a ToC is framed, capturing programme logic and realities of the context. Capacities to develop robust ToC can be strengthened in multiple way, one of which could be to initiate Evaluability Reviews (ERs) of programmes. ERs have potential to improve programme design and associated M&E systems.
2. Sensitise key constituents on ToC – As any change in thinking and working would require a ‘buy-in’, obviously ToC way of working would require that key constituents (donors, policy makers, organisations implementing programmes etc.) understand the need for ToC. Herein a community of practice such as Evalforward and others can continue to engage and facilitate conversations and demonstrate /showcase how use of a ToC can help in better programme design and in results-based management and may be other benefits as well.

Thanks and Best,

Ravi