RE: How useful are theories of change in development programmes and projects? | Eval Forward

Hi Carlos,

Please find below my feedback on use of ToCs.


Essentially, ToCs are meant to capture the changes that an intervention undergoes since its planning till the time it concludes and thereafter in the form of impact. The ToC ladder is usually characterized by inputs, activities, outputs, outcome and impact. Typically, project monitoring teams engaged in day to day management of projects can only foresee the little use of ToCs in the form of immediate output (short term), whereas the difference that project is expected to make will be assessed by an evaluation team that gauges the outcome (medium term) and impact (long-term) of the interventions.

We have used this tool in designing an M&E system of our national strategy on financial inclusion since 2015 in collaboration with World Bank Group. I can say with surety, its highly effective in overall development evaluation paradigm given that proper groundwork, planning and expert choice is made before choosing relevant indicators (true and fair representation) across the ToC ladder.

In brevity, few of the takeaways that I can summarize are as follows:

* This is a tool mostly used by expert M&E professionals and probably not that much by project managers or staff involved with trivial monitoring assignments.

* It is necessary to understand the gist of ToCs which tacitly works in coherence with the principles of Result- Based Monitoring & Evaluation (RBM) as compared to conventional monitoring practices.

* Last but not the least, if you are looking to develop an M&E system that works in coherence with the results of multitude of interventions (national/global level), there is no best tool but ToC to map results across every level that can be fitted under broader and aligned evidence capturing framework.

That's why, ToC has gained quite a significance for evidence-based policymaking and so much so in the design of new interventions based on prior evidence. For review of the practitioner's work, I would suggest Linda G. Morra Imas and Ray C. Rist (2009) guide, "The Road to Results". Further, I already shared my publication, "Designing Robust M&E Systems..". I hope, here you can find the examples of ToC being mapped from RBM system.

Will be happy to assist further in case of any queries.

Regards,

Zahid Shabbir
Joint Director
State Bank of Pakistan