RE: Can we use an evidence-based, evolving Theory of Change to achieve "local learning” during project design? | Eval Forward

What I love about this forum is that it brings out such a broad array of perspectives. Let me summarize briefly, and suggest a way forward on each perspective.

 

The issue is using an evidence-based, evolving ToC to design a localized project.

 

Jean Providence Nzabonimpa offered some compelling reasons to embrace the concept: “There are important factors unknown at the design stage of development interventions… Keeping the ToC intact throughout the life of a project assumes most of its underlying assumptions and logical chain are known in advance and remain constant. This is rarely the case… Assume X outputs lead to Y outcomes. Later on one discovers that A and B factors are also, and more significantly, contributing to Y… A project which discovers new evidence should incorporate it into the learning journey.”

Follow-up question for Jean Providence: Can you describe a specific project that illustrates your point? Do you know anyone who might use an evidence-based, evolving ToC to design a localized project?

 

Serdar Bayryyev highlights “community-driven development” projects, which focus on social capital and empowerment. A case study review of these projects used a theory of change based on the assumption that a participatory implementation process supports people-centered development processes.

Follow-up question for Serdar: Have you seen a community-drive development project that used an evidence-based, evolving ToC to design a localized project? Do you know anyone who might give this a try?

 

Janvier Mwitirehe says that “we operate in fast evolving environment that need to be considered.” This can be done through USAID’s “collaborating, learning and adapting” (CLA) framework, which says that “critical assumptions central to a TOC must be periodically tested – which is a central feature of assumption-based planning.”

Follow-up question for Janvier: Suppose a project environment is poorly understood, but not rapidly evolving during the first 6 months that the project staff interacts with local people. Will the CLA framework help the project staff design a ToC based on local evidence rather than assumptions? Is USAID receptive to using an evidence-based, evolving ToC to design a localized project?

 

Carlos Tarazona, Senior Evaluation Officer FAO, says that “In the FAO Evaluation Office we have used Theory of Change (ToC) … for evaluation purposes only.”

Follow-up question for Carlos: Have you seen an evidence-based, evolving ToC used for real-time evaluation? If someone wanted to use an evidence-based, evolving ToC to design a localized project, could they get helpful advice from an expert in real-time evaluation?

 

John Hoven